Predictions of 2025 Inventory
预测2025 年：尽管抵押贷款利率高企，但房价仍将上涨 大多数房地产分析师认为 2025 年房价将上涨 大银行和华尔街对房价最为乐观 库存仍然是影响价格的更强有力的因素，其影响比抵押贷款利率更大 Lance Lambert of ResiClub (全球最优秀的住宅市场分析师之一）深入研究了一系列 2025 年的房价预测后发现，除穆迪外，所有主要经济评论员都认为明年房价（美国总体）会上涨。高于预期的抵押贷款利率继续让位于持续的房源库存挑战。 Apollo的 Slok 对房价最为乐观，预测为 10.8%。房价预测结果总结如下： 大型银行为何看好 2025 年 房地美在 11 月份的“经济、住房和抵押贷款展望”中强调了库存。他们分享了这张引人入胜的图表，显示了自 9 月份首次下调 50 个基点以来抵押贷款利率上涨了多少，这意味着 2025 年经济预计将更加强劲。 将上面的大部分预测列表分组，以提供另一种查看方式： 大银行 +4.8% 华尔街+6.07％ 贸易集团 +1.75% 政府支持企业 +2.1% 数据+3.6% 大型银行和华尔街预计明年房价上涨空间比其他预测者大得多。这可能是因为经济衰退的担忧已经消退，而软着陆正在发生。这可能是银行对明年抵押贷款利率降低的评论显得更为乐观的原因，这将意味着更多的销售和房价上涨的压力。他们似乎并不担心预期中的通胀关税政策将广泛使用，成为新总统政府经济政策的基石。 阿波罗预测 2025 年房价将大幅上涨 Torsten Slok 也是我最喜欢的房地产市场分析师之一。Slok 在他的免费新闻通讯中发表了大量分析——以下是一些值得思考的内容。 高盛认为劳动力市场将再次收紧 劳动力紧缩将使工资保持高位，并提高2025年住房需求上升的可能性。 上市库存正在扩大，这应该会促进更多房屋销售。但正如 The Real Deal 在《纽约市真的存在住房短缺，还是只是缺乏优质库存？》中谈到的那样，上市库存的状态可能有点复杂。
Home Values Rise Even As Median Prices Fall
Recent headlines have been buzzing about the median asking price of homes dropping compared to last year, and that’s sparked plenty of confusion. And as a buyer or seller, it’s easy to assume that means prices are coming down. But here’s the catch: those numbers don’t tell the full story. Nationally, home values are actually rising, even if the median price is down a bit. Let’s break down what’s really happening so you can make sense of the market without getting caught up in the fear the headlines create. Homes on the Market Right Now Are Smaller The biggest reason for the dip in median price is the size of homes being sold. The median price reflects the middle point of all the homes for sale at any given time. And that’ll be affected by the mix of homes on the market. To show you how this works, here’s a simple explanation of a median (see visual below). Let’s say you have three coins in your pocket, and you decide to line them up according to their value from low to high. If you have one nickel and two dimes, the median (the middle one) is 10 cents. If you have two nickels and one dime, the median is now five cents. In both cases, a nickel is still worth five cents and a dime is still worth 10 cents. The value of each coin didn’t change. The same is true for housing. Right now, there’s a greater number of smaller, less expensive homes on the market, and that’s bringing the overall median price down. But that doesn’t mean home values are declining. As Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, explains: “The share of inventory of smaller and more affordable homes has grown, which helps hold down the median price even as per-square-foot prices grow further.” And here’s the data to prove it. Price Per Square Foot Is Still Rising One of the best ways to measure home values is by looking at the price per square foot. That’s because it shows how much you're paying for the space inside the home. The median asking price doesn't take into account the size of different homes, so it may not always reflect the true value. And the latest national price per square foot data shows home values are still increasing, even though the median asking price has dropped (see graph below). As Ralph McLaughlin, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, explains: “When a change in the mix of inventory toward smaller homes is accounted for, the typical home listed this year has increased in asking price compared with last year.” This means that while smaller homes are affecting the median price, the average home’s value is still rising. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA): “Nationally, the U.S. housing market has experienced positive annual appreciation each quarter since the start of 2012.” So, while headlines may make it sound like prices are crashing, you don’t have to worry. With a closer look and more reliable data, you can see that prices are still climbing nationally. But it’s important to remember that home prices can vary by region. While national trends provide a big-picture view, local markets may be experiencing different conditions. A trusted agent is the best resource to explain what’s happening in your area. Bottom Line The decrease in median price is not the same as a decrease in home values. The median asking price is down mostly due to the mix of smaller, less expensive homes on the market. The important thing to focus on is the price per square foot, which is a better indicator of overall market value—and those prices are still going up. If you have questions about what home prices are doing in our area, feel free to reach out.
Why the Sandwich Generation Is Buying Multi-Generational Homes
Are you a part of the Sandwich Generation? According to Realtor.com, that’s a name for the roughly one in six Americans who take care of their children and their parents or grandparents at the same time. If that sounds familiar to you, juggling all the responsibilities involved certainly must have its challenges. But it turns out there’s one pretty significant benefit: it can actually make it a bit easier for you to buy a home. How Can It Help You Buy a Home? Realtor.com asked members of the Sandwich Generation if they agree or disagree that taking care of children and parents at the same time is helping them afford a home. A third of respondents said their situation made it easier to buy (see graph below): Here are a few ways their caretaking situation might be helping those 33% buy a home: Sharing Expenses: If you live in a multi-generational household, you can pool your resources and split the costs. Your parents might contribute to the mortgage or help with other bills. This can make a big difference, especially in today’s housing market. It may help you afford a larger home than you could on your own. Built-In Childcare: Having grandparents in the home could also save you money on childcare. They can help watch your kids while you’re at work, which means you can save on daycare costs too. Beyond just the financial reasons, buying a multi-generational home has other advantages. The Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) highlights some of the most popular, including: Easier To Care for Aging Parents: It’s more convenient to take care of someone when you live with them. Also, your elderly parents may very well be happier and healthier, thanks to more social interaction and a feeling of connectedness. Spending More Time Together: Once you live together, you get to spend more time and create even more lasting memories with your loved ones. The Mortgage Reports sums it up this way: “Buying a house with your parents can be a great way to ease caregiving, support young children, or simply bring loved ones closer together. And considering the steep rise in home prices over the last few years, it can make homeownership a lot more affordable.” How a Real Estate Agent Can Help If you’re in the Sandwich Generation and thinking about buying a multi-generational home, working with a local real estate agent is essential. Finding a home that works for so many people can be tricky. An agent will use their expertise to help you find one that meets the needs of, and has enough space for, everyone who’s going to live there. Bottom Line Being a part of the Sandwich Generation comes with its challenges – but it also might come with one truly great perk. If you’re looking to buy a home, your caregiving situation can actually make it a bit easier for you to afford a home. To learn more, let’s connect.
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